Eric Smith writes for the online publication Washington State Wire. I've known Eric for 20 years, and think he's one of the best observers and writers on the Olympia scene. Here is his take on what folks can expect when Dr. Arun Raha, the state's chief economist, comes out with the latest revenue forecast at noon Thursday.
Like Eric, I'm not expecting a pot of gold to appear and resolve the state's budget woes. It's worth keeping in mind that lawmakers are still considering a shift in the June 2011 apportionment payments to July 2011.
And as for LEA/levy equalization, while the rallying cry of "no cuts" has bipartisan support in both chambers, if the forecast creeps up to an additional $1 billion mark (so $5.5 billion between revenues and expenditures for 2011-13), leadership has indicated that even LEA may be in for a reduction.
In December, Gov. Chris Gregoire proposed a $39 million cut, using a four-tiered system that would reduce funding levels more significantly to districts that are closest to the state average. Another idea that's on the table is to roll back the 2010 increase to 12%, which was part of the deal lifting the levy lid to 28% - without a similar decrease in levy lid.
House budget chair Ross Hunter, D-Medina, says he'll have a budget ready for review 4-5 days after the forecast. With five weeks left before the end of session, the question is whether they can agree on cuts and complete their work or if they will wait and hope the June forecast closes the gap. Stay tuned.
Updates on the Legislature and state government from the Washington State School Directors' Association.
